eMarketer predicts dire U.S. growth for Twitter

If only Twitter Inc. (NYSE:TWTR) could return to its days of double-digit growth. Unfortunately, that does not seem likely for the micro-blogging service. Research firm eMarketer put their research behind their forecast, possibly giving Twitter’s CEO Dick Costolo shudders.

According to eMarketer, about one-fifth of Twitter users log in only once a month. This is the user base Twitter gained when it did have massive growth. Nonetheless, eMarketer sees the expansion of 19.4% in 2013, declining to 10% in 2015. To add insult to injury, the firm sees growth moving even more slowly to 6.4% by 2018.

Additionally, eMarketer sees 64.9 million Americans logging onto Twitter. That is half of Facebook’s current user base today. The predictions convey what Twitter probably already knows; if it wants to expand its user base, it will have to make transformative changes.

Earlier this year, Twitter showed an increase of 3.8% more active monthly users. In the same period of 2013, it had a 6.4% increase in active monthly users. As a result of the slowdown, Costolo mentioned that the company will keep an eye on its users as well as making Twitter more simple to use for novices.

Furthermore, eMarketer’s data actually portrays a more grim picture than the numbers Twitter provided. While Twitter said they had 54 million active users at the end of 2013; eMarketer asserted they had 43.2 million. eMarketer gathers their information through external surveys. This excludes business accounts and multiple accounts owned by the same user.

As a result, eMarketer wrote,“A maturing user base means that steep growth is in the rear-view for Twitter in the U.S.” Most of Twitter’s growth was driven by 18-24 year olds. eMarketer sees future growth coming from older users because they are still adapting, it’s just at a slower pace.

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