Ming Chi Kuo, a noted analyst at KGI Securities, is making grandiose claims today about the rumored iWatch that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is allegedly on the brink of launching. The sweeping, detailed predictions that Mr. Kuo provides include a battery of new technologies, a laundry list of features, amazingly high sales figures, and a price of several thousand dollars for the upper end iWatch. If his assertions are indeed true, the iWatch is probably Apple’s most significant product launch since the introduction of the first iPhone.
Mr. Kuo claims that the most expensive iWatch will cost “thousands,” which, if accurate, makes it unkliely that the “cheapest” version will be available for $50. He further asserts that as many as 50 million iWatches will be sold globally in 2015 as demand takes hold. If one assumes a median price point of $1,000 for the watches, this would harvest $50 billion for Apple Inc. (AAPL) in the first year alone.
This would represent a figure equal to nearly half of Apple’s total net income for the past decade. 2013’s revenue for the Cupertino firm was $170.9 billion, meaning that if revenue remained the same except for the additional sales of iWatches, gross revenues would jump an astonishing 29% in 2015 relative to 2013. If Mr. Kuo is right, the iWatch is a game changer equal to Apple’s most successful products from the past.
A fairly astonishing device would be needed to generate sales on such a transformative scale. Mr. Kuo believes that the iWatch will incorporate “liquid metal” (no further detail given on what this entails), plus wireless charging, advanced biometric features, and the ability to interface with rest of the Apple ecosystem, including the iPad, iPhone, MacBook, and iPod. The icing on the cake, according to the analyst, will be the irresistible aesthetics of the new device.
While Mr. Kuo’s predictive abilities have won him numerous kudos over the past few years, many other analysts are puzzled by his predictions for the iWatch. Critic of the idea from Business Insider to The Mac Observer note that none of the features prdicted, nor their aggegate, is enough to justify a price tag of “thousands of dollars.” If the iWatch is marketed as high end jewelry rather than consumer electronics, then such a price point might be remotely possible. But in that case, sales of 50 million units during a one year period become vanishingly improbable, even in a world with many more millionaires than at other points in history.
